What happens if Iran Loses Control of Kharg Island Oil Export Terminal

Kharg Island handles over 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, making it the country's economic lifeline. Loss of control—whether through military action, internal collapse, or sabotage—would immediately remove 1.5-2 million barrels per day from global supply. With limited alternative export infrastructure, Iran would face fiscal crisis while oil markets experience acute supply tightness, potentially driving Brent crude above $120/barrel in the initial shock phase.

Kharg Island handles over 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, making it the country's economic lifeline. Loss of control—whether through military action, internal collapse, or sabotage—would immediately remove 1.5-2 million barrels per day from global supply. With limited alternative export infrastructure, Iran would face fiscal crisis while oil markets experience acute supply tightness, potentially driving Brent crude above $120/barrel in the initial shock phase.