TOPIC33 SCENARIOS3 BRIEFS

commodities

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0% – 100%

COMMODITIES · PRECIOUS METALS
What happens ifSilver Settles Below $50 Amid Weakening Industrial Demand
Silver futures fall below $50 as global industrial demand softens and inflation expectations moderate, reducing both industrial consumption and safe-haven appeal.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
3 / 7
GEOPOLITICS · CONFLICT
What happens ifRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Reached
A negotiated ceasefire reshapes energy markets, eases geopolitical tensions, and unlocks reconstruction opportunities while creating uncertainty around sanctions.
PROBABILITY
45%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City
Russian forces seize Zaporizhia, a major Ukrainian industrial hub, consolidating control over southern Ukraine and threatening critical energy infrastructure.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifRussia Captures Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Russian forces seize the strategic city of Orikhiv, consolidating territorial control in southern Ukraine and strengthening their land bridge to Crimea.
PROBABILITY
4%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifChina's GDP Growth Breaks Outside Target Range
China's GDP growth deviates from the expected 4.6%-4.9% range, signaling potential economic overheating or slowdown with cascading effects on global trade, monetary policy, and markets.
PROBABILITY
84%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 5
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces seize the strategic industrial city of Sloviansk, marking a significant territorial gain in the Donbas region and escalating geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
22%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei
A historic direct conversation between Trump and Khamenei could reshape US-Iran relations, impacting Middle East stability, oil markets, and regional power dynamics.
PROBABILITY
15%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifNorth Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests Threatening Regional Stability
North Korea launches 2-3 missile tests, escalating tensions with South Korea, Japan, and the US, triggering defense spending increases and market volatility across Asia.
PROBABILITY
45%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran commits to allowing unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, removing a major geopolitical risk premium from global energy markets and reducing supply disruption concerns.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict
Russian capture of Kharkiv would mark a major territorial gain, disrupting Ukrainian industry, energy infrastructure, and regional stability while triggering supply chain volatility.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
OIL GAS · ENERGY
What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu
Natural gas prices climb to $3.20/MMBtu driven by supply constraints, weather volatility, and sustained industrial demand, creating inflationary pressures.
PROBABILITY
42%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium
The United States secures enriched uranium from Iran through diplomatic or military means, fundamentally reshaping Middle East nuclear dynamics and global non-proliferation frameworks.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
AI · TECH
What happens ifOpenAI Valuation Reaches $1.5 Trillion
OpenAI achieves a $1.5T valuation, marking a historic milestone in AI sector growth and triggering significant capital reallocation across technology markets.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 0
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Territory in Sumy Oblast
Russian forces gain control of significant territory in Ukraine's Sumy region, disrupting agricultural exports, energy transit routes, and escalating geopolitical tensions across Eastern Europe.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz
South Korean naval forces establish a presence in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling commitment to energy security and maritime stability in the Persian Gulf region.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Dobropillia in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces seize Dobropillia, a strategic coal-mining hub in Donetsk Oblast, disrupting Ukrainian energy production and altering frontline dynamics in the ongoing conflict.
PROBABILITY
37%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIran Surrenders Enriched Uranium Stockpile
Iran agrees to surrender its entire enriched uranium stockpile, marking a major breakthrough in nuclear nonproliferation and potentially reshaping Middle East geopolitics and energy markets.
PROBABILITY
38%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUkraine Recaptures Myrnohrad
Ukrainian forces retake the strategic Donetsk coal mining hub, disrupting Russian supply lines and potentially shifting the conflict's momentum in Eastern Ukraine.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
EQUITIES · TECH
What happens ifSpaceX Goes Public: Reshaping Aerospace and Capital Markets
A SpaceX IPO would be one of the largest tech offerings in history, potentially unlocking hundreds of billions in valuation and catalyzing investment in aerospace innovation.
PROBABILITY
100%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 0
ENERGY · COMMODITIES
What happens ifCrude Oil Settles in the $42-$49 Range
Crude oil prices stabilize in a moderate range, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics with implications for inflation, energy sector profitability, and global supply chains.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
33 / 5
ENERGY · COMMODITIES
What happens ifWTI Crude Oil Reaches $115 per Barrel
A surge in WTI crude to $115/bbl driven by geopolitical supply disruptions and robust demand would amplify inflation, trigger monetary tightening, and reshape energy markets.
PROBABILITY
28%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
21 / 29
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifCoup Attempt in Russia Before End
A coup attempt in Russia would trigger severe political instability, disrupt global energy markets, and reshape geopolitical alliances across Europe and Asia.
PROBABILITY
8%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
23 / 23
COMMODITIES · GOLD
What happens ifSilver Hits $66: Inflation and Industrial Demand Surge
Silver reaches $66/oz by May 2026, driven by persistent inflation and surging industrial demand from solar, electronics, and EV sectors.
PROBABILITY
18%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
20 / 19
INFLATION · GEOPOLITICS
What happens ifGold Futures Surge to $3,800
Gold futures reach $3,800/oz by mid-2026 driven by persistent inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and central bank reserve diversification.
PROBABILITY
7%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
24 / 13

Scenarios

What happens ifSilver Settles Below $50 Amid Weakening Industrial Demand

What happens ifRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Reached

What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City

What happens ifRussia Captures Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

What happens ifChina's GDP Growth Breaks Outside Target Range

What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

What happens ifNorth Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests Threatening Regional Stability

What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict

What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu

What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium

What happens ifOpenAI Valuation Reaches $1.5 Trillion

What happens ifRussia Captures Territory in Sumy Oblast

What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifRussia Captures Dobropillia in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifIran Surrenders Enriched Uranium Stockpile

What happens ifUkraine Recaptures Myrnohrad

What happens ifSpaceX Goes Public: Reshaping Aerospace and Capital Markets

What happens ifCrude Oil Settles in the $42-$49 Range

What happens ifWTI Crude Oil Reaches $115 per Barrel

What happens ifCoup Attempt in Russia Before End

What happens ifSilver Hits $66: Inflation and Industrial Demand Surge

What happens ifGold Futures Surge to $3,800

Briefs

MacroCade Brief — 2026-06-04: Stagflation Signals Intensify as CPI Holds Elevated

MacroCade Brief — June 3, 2026: Inflation Persistence Reshapes Rate Expectations

MacroCade Brief — June 2, 2026: Inflation Plateau Triggers Policy Recalibration

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifSilver Settles Below $50 Amid Weakening Industrial Demand

What happens ifRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Reached

What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City

What happens ifRussia Captures Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

What happens ifChina's GDP Growth Breaks Outside Target Range

What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

What happens ifNorth Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests Threatening Regional Stability

What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict

What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu

What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium

What happens ifOpenAI Valuation Reaches $1.5 Trillion

What happens ifRussia Captures Territory in Sumy Oblast

What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifRussia Captures Dobropillia in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifIran Surrenders Enriched Uranium Stockpile

What happens ifUkraine Recaptures Myrnohrad

What happens ifSpaceX Goes Public: Reshaping Aerospace and Capital Markets

What happens ifCrude Oil Settles in the $42-$49 Range

What happens ifWTI Crude Oil Reaches $115 per Barrel

What happens ifCoup Attempt in Russia Before End

What happens ifSilver Hits $66: Inflation and Industrial Demand Surge

What happens ifGold Futures Surge to $3,800