TOPIC29 SCENARIOS

defense

Scenarios

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0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · CONFLICT
What happens ifIsraeli Forces Enter Tyre, Lebanon
A hypothetical Israeli military incursion into Tyre would escalate regional tensions, disrupt Mediterranean shipping, and trigger safe-haven flows into gold and energy.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · CHINA
What happens ifChina Invades Taiwan
A Chinese military invasion of Taiwan would trigger a massive geopolitical crisis, disrupting global semiconductor supply chains and risking direct US-China military confrontation.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
21
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifUS Conducts Kinetic Strikes Against Cartels on Foreign Soil
The United States launches military operations targeting drug cartel infrastructure in foreign territories, raising sovereignty concerns and potentially destabilizing regional security dynamics.
PROBABILITY
26%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections
The Knesset dissolves itself before its term ends, forcing snap elections that could reshape Israel's coalition government and regional security posture amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
72%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifUS Initiates Military Strikes on 13+ Countries
Unprecedented escalation of US military operations across multiple nations would trigger global instability, defense sector surge, and severe diplomatic fallout.
PROBABILITY
3%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City
Russian forces seize Zaporizhia, a major Ukrainian industrial hub, consolidating control over southern Ukraine and threatening critical energy infrastructure.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifNATO Country and Russia Engage in Direct Military Clash
A direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia would trigger unprecedented defense spending, energy market disruptions, and global supply chain chaos, reshaping the geopolitical order.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifRussia Captures Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Russian forces seize the strategic city of Orikhiv, consolidating territorial control in southern Ukraine and strengthening their land bridge to Crimea.
PROBABILITY
4%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifUkraine Formally Agrees Not to Join NATO
Ukraine commits to permanent NATO non-membership, potentially reshaping Eastern European security architecture and reducing immediate military tensions with Russia.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces seize the strategic industrial city of Sloviansk, marking a significant territorial gain in the Donbas region and escalating geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
22%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifNorth Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests Threatening Regional Stability
North Korea launches 2-3 missile tests, escalating tensions with South Korea, Japan, and the US, triggering defense spending increases and market volatility across Asia.
PROBABILITY
45%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict
Russian capture of Kharkiv would mark a major territorial gain, disrupting Ukrainian industry, energy infrastructure, and regional stability while triggering supply chain volatility.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz
Indian warships transit the Strait of Hormuz, asserting maritime power in a critical energy chokepoint and reshaping Middle East security dynamics.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium
The United States secures enriched uranium from Iran through diplomatic or military means, fundamentally reshaping Middle East nuclear dynamics and global non-proliferation frameworks.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifUS Conducts Kinetic Anti-Cartel Operations on Foreign Soil
The United States launches military strikes against drug cartels on foreign territory without host-nation consent, triggering international legal disputes and regional instability.
PROBABILITY
18%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUkraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal
A negotiated settlement ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict would reshape European security, energy markets, and global supply chains while triggering reconstruction investment.
PROBABILITY
26%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
GEOPOLITICS · US POLITICS
What happens ifTrump, Putin, and Zelensky Hold Trilateral Summit
A high-stakes diplomatic meeting between the three leaders could reshape the Russia-Ukraine conflict trajectory and redefine US-Russia relations, with significant implications for global stability.
PROBABILITY
10%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUS-Iran Ceasefire Collapses in Middle East
A breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire would trigger immediate oil supply concerns, regional military escalation, and sharp volatility across energy markets and defense sectors.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUkraine Recaptures Myrnohrad
Ukrainian forces retake the strategic Donetsk coal mining hub, disrupting Russian supply lines and potentially shifting the conflict's momentum in Eastern Ukraine.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifItaly Deploys Warships to the Strait of Hormuz
Italian naval deployment to the Strait of Hormuz could escalate regional tensions, disrupt global energy flows, and trigger market volatility across oil, gas, and shipping sectors.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · CHINA
What happens ifKim Jong Un Removed as Supreme Leader of North Korea
A leadership transition in Pyongyang could reshape Northeast Asian security dynamics, alter denuclearization prospects, and trigger significant market volatility across the region.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
22 / 8
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsrael Annexes Gaza Territory
Israel formally annexes portions of Gaza by mid-2026, triggering international condemnation, regional instability, and significant shifts in Middle East geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
17 / 24
GEOPOLITICS · EUROPE
What happens ifUkraine Agrees to Limit Armed Forces Size
Ukraine commits to reducing military capacity as part of broader peace negotiations, reshaping Eastern European security dynamics and regional defense postures.
PROBABILITY
11%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
26 / 10
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifTrump Attends NATO Summit
Former President Trump's potential attendance at the 2026 NATO Summit in Washington D.C. could reshape transatlantic relations, defense spending priorities, and alliance cohesion.
PROBABILITY
85%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
16 / 13

Scenarios

What happens ifIsraeli Forces Enter Tyre, Lebanon

What happens ifChina Invades Taiwan

What happens ifUS Conducts Kinetic Strikes Against Cartels on Foreign Soil

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections

What happens ifUS Initiates Military Strikes on 13+ Countries

What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City

What happens ifNATO Country and Russia Engage in Direct Military Clash

What happens ifRussia Captures Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

What happens ifUkraine Formally Agrees Not to Join NATO

What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifNorth Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests Threatening Regional Stability

What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict

What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium

What happens ifUS Conducts Kinetic Anti-Cartel Operations on Foreign Soil

What happens ifUkraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal

What happens ifTrump, Putin, and Zelensky Hold Trilateral Summit

What happens ifUS-Iran Ceasefire Collapses in Middle East

What happens ifUkraine Recaptures Myrnohrad

What happens ifItaly Deploys Warships to the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifKim Jong Un Removed as Supreme Leader of North Korea

What happens ifIsrael Annexes Gaza Territory

What happens ifUkraine Agrees to Limit Armed Forces Size

What happens ifTrump Attends NATO Summit

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifIsraeli Forces Enter Tyre, Lebanon

What happens ifChina Invades Taiwan

What happens ifUS Conducts Kinetic Strikes Against Cartels on Foreign Soil

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections

What happens ifUS Initiates Military Strikes on 13+ Countries

What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City

What happens ifNATO Country and Russia Engage in Direct Military Clash

What happens ifRussia Captures Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

What happens ifUkraine Formally Agrees Not to Join NATO

What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifNorth Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests Threatening Regional Stability

What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict

What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium

What happens ifUS Conducts Kinetic Anti-Cartel Operations on Foreign Soil

What happens ifUkraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal

What happens ifTrump, Putin, and Zelensky Hold Trilateral Summit

What happens ifUS-Iran Ceasefire Collapses in Middle East

What happens ifUkraine Recaptures Myrnohrad

What happens ifItaly Deploys Warships to the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifKim Jong Un Removed as Supreme Leader of North Korea

What happens ifIsrael Annexes Gaza Territory

What happens ifUkraine Agrees to Limit Armed Forces Size

What happens ifTrump Attends NATO Summit