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Popular scenarios

What happens if the Fed holds rates What happens if the Fed cuts rates to 0.5%What happens if Bitcoin reaches $130k What happens if AI surpasses current benchmarks What happens if OpenAI IPOs above $800B What happens if Pakistan deploys warships to Hormuz What happens if Trump and Putin hold an EU summit What happens if there is a coup attempt in Russia

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PROB

0% – 100%

PROB

0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · IRAN
What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough
A US agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets would mark a major shift in sanctions policy, potentially flooding energy markets with additional supply while reshaping Middle East geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
26%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY MARKETS
What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension
A new US-Iran diplomatic agreement or ceasefire extension could reshape Middle East geopolitics, stabilize energy markets, and reduce regional tensions while introducing new supply dynamics.
PROBABILITY
43%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6