TOPIC5 SCENARIOS

elections

Scenarios

PROB

0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections
The Knesset dissolves itself before its term ends, forcing snap elections that could reshape Israel's coalition government and regional security posture amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
72%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ELECTIONS
What happens ifLiberal Democratic Party of Russia Wins Most Seats in Parliamentary Election
The nationalist LDPR securing a parliamentary plurality would signal a shift toward more assertive foreign policy, protectionist trade measures, and heightened geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
GEOPOLITICS · ELECTIONS
What happens ifRodina Gains Most Seats in Russian Parliamentary Election
Nationalist party Rodina secures plurality in Russian Duma, signaling shift toward more assertive foreign policy and domestic conservatism with implications for energy markets and sanctions.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
41 / 26
US POLITICS · GEOPOLITICS
What happens ifUS Presidential Term Limits Repealed or Altered
Constitutional amendment repealing or modifying the 22nd Amendment, allowing presidents to serve beyond two terms, fundamentally reshaping US political dynamics.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
15 / 12
GEOPOLITICS · ELECTIONS
What happens ifTrump-Putin Summit in EU
A high-stakes meeting between Trump and Putin on European soil could reshape US-Russia relations, test EU unity, and trigger cascading effects across global security and energy markets.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
22 / 20

Scenarios

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections

What happens ifLiberal Democratic Party of Russia Wins Most Seats in Parliamentary Election

What happens ifRodina Gains Most Seats in Russian Parliamentary Election

What happens ifUS Presidential Term Limits Repealed or Altered

What happens ifTrump-Putin Summit in EU

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections

What happens ifLiberal Democratic Party of Russia Wins Most Seats in Parliamentary Election

What happens ifRodina Gains Most Seats in Russian Parliamentary Election

What happens ifUS Presidential Term Limits Repealed or Altered

What happens ifTrump-Putin Summit in EU