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energy

Scenarios

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PROB

0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUS and Iran Reach Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement
A diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran lifts sanctions, reshapes Middle East power dynamics, and adds significant oil supply to global markets.
PROBABILITY
36%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifUS Initiates Military Strikes on 13+ Countries
Unprecedented escalation of US military operations across multiple nations would trigger global instability, defense sector surge, and severe diplomatic fallout.
PROBABILITY
3%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifNavid Shomali Becomes Head of State in Iran
A hypothetical leadership transition in Iran that would reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, US-Iran relations, and global energy markets through shifts in regional power dynamics.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City
Russian forces seize Zaporizhia, a major Ukrainian industrial hub, consolidating control over southern Ukraine and threatening critical energy infrastructure.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
What happens ifNATO Country and Russia Engage in Direct Military Clash
A direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia would trigger unprecedented defense spending, energy market disruptions, and global supply chain chaos, reshaping the geopolitical order.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIran and Oman Reach Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Management
A bilateral accord on maritime traffic coordination in the world's most critical oil chokepoint could reduce geopolitical risk premiums and stabilize energy flows.
PROBABILITY
7%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
2 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement
A comprehensive peace treaty between Israel and Iran would fundamentally reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, energy markets, and global trade dynamics.
PROBABILITY
4%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 5
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifHassan Khomeini Becomes Iran's De Facto Head of State
Grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini consolidates power in Tehran, potentially reshaping Iran's domestic politics, regional posture, and energy export policies.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces seize the strategic industrial city of Sloviansk, marking a significant territorial gain in the Donbas region and escalating geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
22%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran commits to allowing unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, removing a major geopolitical risk premium from global energy markets and reducing supply disruption concerns.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · OIL GAS
What happens ifUS Announces Cuba Oil Sanction Relief
The United States lifts oil sanctions on Cuba, potentially unlocking offshore reserves and reshaping Caribbean energy dynamics and regional diplomatic relations.
PROBABILITY
5%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 0
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUAE and Saudi Arabia Sever Diplomatic Relations
A breakdown in UAE-Saudi diplomatic ties would fracture the GCC, disrupt OPEC coordination, and send shockwaves through global energy markets and Middle Eastern stability.
PROBABILITY
4%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict
Russian capture of Kharkiv would mark a major territorial gain, disrupting Ukrainian industry, energy infrastructure, and regional stability while triggering supply chain volatility.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
OIL GAS · ENERGY
What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu
Natural gas prices climb to $3.20/MMBtu driven by supply constraints, weather volatility, and sustained industrial demand, creating inflationary pressures.
PROBABILITY
42%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Outside Normal Range
Deviation from typical 10-20 daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz signals potential supply disruptions or geopolitical escalation in this critical energy chokepoint.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz
Indian warships transit the Strait of Hormuz, asserting maritime power in a critical energy chokepoint and reshaping Middle East security dynamics.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUS and Iran Hold High-Level Diplomatic Talks
A scheduled diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran could reshape Middle East geopolitics, potentially easing sanctions and stabilizing regional oil markets.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
3 / 5
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Territory in Sumy Oblast
Russian forces gain control of significant territory in Ukraine's Sumy region, disrupting agricultural exports, energy transit routes, and escalating geopolitical tensions across Eastern Europe.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz
South Korean naval forces establish a presence in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling commitment to energy security and maritime stability in the Persian Gulf region.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifReza Pahlavi Becomes Leader of Iran
The son of Iran's last Shah returns to power, potentially transforming the Islamic Republic into a secular democracy and reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUkraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal
A negotiated settlement ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict would reshape European security, energy markets, and global supply chains while triggering reconstruction investment.
PROBABILITY
26%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves Triggering Regional Uncertainty
Early dissolution of the Knesset would trigger snap elections, creating political instability that could reshape regional diplomacy, delay infrastructure projects, and impact investor confidence.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Traffic Fails to Normalize
Persistent disruption to the world's most critical energy chokepoint triggers sustained oil price spikes, reroutes global trade flows, and reshapes maritime security dynamics.
PROBABILITY
10%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 0
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifRussia Captures Dobropillia in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces seize Dobropillia, a strategic coal-mining hub in Donetsk Oblast, disrupting Ukrainian energy production and altering frontline dynamics in the ongoing conflict.
PROBABILITY
37%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1

Scenarios

What happens ifUS and Iran Reach Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

What happens ifUS Initiates Military Strikes on 13+ Countries

What happens ifNavid Shomali Becomes Head of State in Iran

What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City

What happens ifNATO Country and Russia Engage in Direct Military Clash

What happens ifIran and Oman Reach Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Management

What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement

What happens ifHassan Khomeini Becomes Iran's De Facto Head of State

What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS Announces Cuba Oil Sanction Relief

What happens ifUAE and Saudi Arabia Sever Diplomatic Relations

What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict

What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Outside Normal Range

What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS and Iran Hold High-Level Diplomatic Talks

What happens ifRussia Captures Territory in Sumy Oblast

What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifReza Pahlavi Becomes Leader of Iran

What happens ifUkraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves Triggering Regional Uncertainty

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Traffic Fails to Normalize

What happens ifRussia Captures Dobropillia in Eastern Ukraine

Briefs

MacroCade Brief — 2026-06-04: Stagflation Signals Intensify as CPI Holds Elevated

MacroCade Brief — June 3, 2026: Inflation Persistence Reshapes Rate Expectations

MacroCade Brief — June 2, 2026: Inflation Plateau Triggers Policy Recalibration

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifUS and Iran Reach Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

What happens ifUS Initiates Military Strikes on 13+ Countries

What happens ifNavid Shomali Becomes Head of State in Iran

What happens ifRussia Captures Zaporizhia City

What happens ifNATO Country and Russia Engage in Direct Military Clash

What happens ifIran and Oman Reach Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Management

What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement

What happens ifHassan Khomeini Becomes Iran's De Facto Head of State

What happens ifRussia Captures Sloviansk in Eastern Ukraine

What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS Announces Cuba Oil Sanction Relief

What happens ifUAE and Saudi Arabia Sever Diplomatic Relations

What happens ifRussia Captures Kharkiv in Escalated Ukraine Conflict

What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Outside Normal Range

What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS and Iran Hold High-Level Diplomatic Talks

What happens ifRussia Captures Territory in Sumy Oblast

What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifReza Pahlavi Becomes Leader of Iran

What happens ifUkraine and Russia Sign a Peace Deal

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves Triggering Regional Uncertainty

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Traffic Fails to Normalize

What happens ifRussia Captures Dobropillia in Eastern Ukraine