TOPIC5 SCENARIOS12 BRIEFS

energy-markets

Scenarios

PROB

0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · MILITARY CONFLICT
What happens ifIranian Regime Collapses Following US Military Strikes
US military action triggers the fall of Iran's government, creating a Middle Eastern power vacuum with global energy market implications and regional security risks.
PROBABILITY
98%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · NUCLEAR POLICY
What happens ifIran Agrees to End Uranium Enrichment
Iran commits to halting all uranium enrichment activities, potentially reshaping Middle East geopolitics, energy markets, and nuclear non-proliferation frameworks.
PROBABILITY
22%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · CONFLICT
What happens ifRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Reached
A negotiated ceasefire reshapes energy markets, eases geopolitical tensions, and unlocks reconstruction opportunities while creating uncertainty around sanctions.
PROBABILITY
45%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · IRAN
What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough
A US agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets would mark a major shift in sanctions policy, potentially flooding energy markets with additional supply while reshaping Middle East geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
26%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY MARKETS
What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension
A new US-Iran diplomatic agreement or ceasefire extension could reshape Middle East geopolitics, stabilize energy markets, and reduce regional tensions while introducing new supply dynamics.
PROBABILITY
43%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6

energy-markets

Scenarios

What happens ifIranian Regime Collapses Following US Military Strikes

What happens ifIran Agrees to End Uranium Enrichment

What happens ifRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Reached

What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough

What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension

Briefs

Quiet Markets Mask Policy Crossroads

Thin Data Day, Markets Consolidate Ahead of Month-End

Consolidation Masks Structural Tensions

Energy Consolidation, Tech Rotation, Geopolitical Simmer

Quiet Markets Mask Policy Crosscurrents

Macro Vacuum Persists, Markets Drift in Low-Volume Consolidation

Macro Stasis Masks Positioning Shifts

Quiet Markets Mask Structural Tensions

Quiet Markets Mask Structural Tensions

Policy Divergence and Geopolitical Risk Premium Expand

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifIranian Regime Collapses Following US Military Strikes

What happens ifIran Agrees to End Uranium Enrichment

What happens ifRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Reached

What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough

What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension