TOPIC18 SCENARIOS3 BRIEFS

fed-rates

Scenarios

PROB

0% – 100%

CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Cuts Cash Rate Following Mid-Year Meeting
The RBA implements an expansionary monetary policy shift by lowering the official cash rate, aiming to stimulate economic activity through reduced borrowing costs and increased liquidity.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 3
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifBank of Canada Holds Interest Rates Steady
The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate instead of cutting by 25 basis points, signaling stronger-than-expected economic conditions and triggering currency and bond market volatility.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifBank of Canada Announces 50+ Basis Point Rate Cut
The Bank of Canada delivers an aggressive 50+ basis point rate cut, signaling a major shift toward monetary easing amid slowing growth and cooling inflation pressures.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifECB Announces Deposit Facility Rate Change
The European Central Bank adjusts its deposit facility rate, impacting Eurozone borrowing costs, inflation dynamics, and currency markets across the region.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
FED RATES · EUROPE
What happens ifECB Pauses Rate Hikes Despite Market Expectations
The European Central Bank surprises markets by holding rates steady, signaling a shift in monetary policy stance amid evolving inflation and growth dynamics.
PROBABILITY
99%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifFed Lower Bound Drops to 1.75% or Below
The Federal Reserve cuts its policy rate floor to 1.75% or lower, signaling aggressive monetary easing in response to severe economic weakness or deflationary pressures.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
21
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifFederal Reserve Implements Quarter-Point Rate Increase
The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, tightening monetary policy to combat inflation while risking slower economic growth and global capital flow disruptions.
PROBABILITY
20%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
3 / 5
EQUITIES · FED RATES
What happens ifS&P 500 Reaches 8,600: Bull Market Acceleration
The S&P 500 surges to 8,600, driven by robust earnings growth, multiple expansion, and accommodative monetary conditions despite current anomalous volatility readings.
PROBABILITY
16%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 0
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifBank of Korea Cuts Base Rate After Mid-Year Meeting
The Bank of Korea reduces its base interest rate to stimulate economic growth, potentially weakening the won and boosting domestic demand while navigating global monetary policy divergence.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
17 / 8
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate Above Market Expectations
The RBA delivers an unexpected rate hike, tightening monetary policy to combat persistent inflation and signaling a hawkish shift in Australia's economic management.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
12 / 34
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifBank of Mexico Raises Interest Rates
Banxico hikes rates to combat persistent inflation and stabilize the peso, strengthening MXN and reshaping emerging market capital flows.
PROBABILITY
93%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
18 / 17
INFLATION · FED RATES
What happens ifUS Annual Inflation Reaches 4.2%
US inflation persists at 4.2% in May 2026, well above the Fed's 2% target, forcing sustained restrictive monetary policy and reshaping consumer spending patterns.
PROBABILITY
46%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
23 / 28
FED RATES · INFLATION
What happens ifFed Holds Rates
The Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates through its September 2026 meeting, signaling persistent inflation concerns or economic resilience that delays monetary easing.
PROBABILITY
8%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 39
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens if10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.2%
A scenario where the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.2%, driven by persistent inflation, aggressive Fed policy, or increased government borrowing.
PROBABILITY
8%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
16 / 40
CENTRAL BANKS · EUROPE
What happens ifECB Cuts Rates 25bp — Euro Under Pressure
The ECB delivers a dovish 25bp deposit rate cut in October 2026, triggering euro weakness against the dollar, compressing eurozone bank margins, and widening peripheral spreads.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
28 / 14
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifBank of Canada Raises Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada implements an unexpected rate hike in mid-2026, signaling concerns about persistent inflation and economic overheating despite global monetary easing trends.
PROBABILITY
99%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
14 / 29
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifFederal Reserve Cuts Rates to 0.5% or Lower
The Fed slashes rates to near-zero levels by 2027, signaling severe economic distress or deflationary pressures requiring aggressive monetary stimulus.
PROBABILITY
5%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
34 / 20
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifFederal Reserve Achieves Unanimous Vote in Policy Decision
The FOMC reaches full consensus on monetary policy for the first time in years, signaling strong agreement on the economic outlook and policy path forward.
PROBABILITY
72%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
24 / 24

Scenarios

What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Cuts Cash Rate Following Mid-Year Meeting

What happens ifBank of Canada Holds Interest Rates Steady

What happens ifBank of Canada Announces 50+ Basis Point Rate Cut

What happens ifECB Announces Deposit Facility Rate Change

What happens ifECB Pauses Rate Hikes Despite Market Expectations

What happens ifFed Lower Bound Drops to 1.75% or Below

What happens ifFederal Reserve Implements Quarter-Point Rate Increase

What happens ifS&P 500 Reaches 8,600: Bull Market Acceleration

What happens ifBank of Korea Cuts Base Rate After Mid-Year Meeting

What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate Above Market Expectations

What happens ifBank of Mexico Raises Interest Rates

What happens ifUS Annual Inflation Reaches 4.2%

What happens ifFed Holds Rates

What happens if10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.2%

What happens ifECB Cuts Rates 25bp — Euro Under Pressure

What happens ifBank of Canada Raises Interest Rates

What happens ifFederal Reserve Cuts Rates to 0.5% or Lower

What happens ifFederal Reserve Achieves Unanimous Vote in Policy Decision

Briefs

MacroCade Brief — 2026-06-04: Stagflation Signals Intensify as CPI Holds Elevated

MacroCade Brief — June 3, 2026: Inflation Persistence Reshapes Rate Expectations

MacroCade Brief — June 2, 2026: Inflation Plateau Triggers Policy Recalibration

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Cuts Cash Rate Following Mid-Year Meeting

What happens ifBank of Canada Holds Interest Rates Steady

What happens ifBank of Canada Announces 50+ Basis Point Rate Cut

What happens ifECB Announces Deposit Facility Rate Change

What happens ifECB Pauses Rate Hikes Despite Market Expectations

What happens ifFed Lower Bound Drops to 1.75% or Below

What happens ifFederal Reserve Implements Quarter-Point Rate Increase

What happens ifS&P 500 Reaches 8,600: Bull Market Acceleration

What happens ifBank of Korea Cuts Base Rate After Mid-Year Meeting

What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate Above Market Expectations

What happens ifBank of Mexico Raises Interest Rates

What happens ifUS Annual Inflation Reaches 4.2%

What happens ifFed Holds Rates

What happens if10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.2%

What happens ifECB Cuts Rates 25bp — Euro Under Pressure

What happens ifBank of Canada Raises Interest Rates

What happens ifFederal Reserve Cuts Rates to 0.5% or Lower

What happens ifFederal Reserve Achieves Unanimous Vote in Policy Decision