TOPIC25 SCENARIOS6 BRIEFS

inflation

Scenarios

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PROB

0% – 100%

COMMODITIES · PRECIOUS METALS
What happens ifSilver Settles Below $50 Amid Weakening Industrial Demand
Silver futures fall below $50 as global industrial demand softens and inflation expectations moderate, reducing both industrial consumption and safe-haven appeal.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
3 / 7
CENTRAL BANK POLICY · MONETARY POLICY
What happens ifFour or More FOMC Members Dissent on Fed Decision
Unprecedented dissent among Federal Reserve policymakers signals deep division on monetary policy path, potentially triggering market volatility and policy uncertainty.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 4
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifBank of Canada Holds Interest Rates Steady
The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate instead of cutting by 25 basis points, signaling stronger-than-expected economic conditions and triggering currency and bond market volatility.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifBank of Canada Announces 50+ Basis Point Rate Cut
The Bank of Canada delivers an aggressive 50+ basis point rate cut, signaling a major shift toward monetary easing amid slowing growth and cooling inflation pressures.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifECB Announces Deposit Facility Rate Change
The European Central Bank adjusts its deposit facility rate, impacting Eurozone borrowing costs, inflation dynamics, and currency markets across the region.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
OIL GAS · ENERGY
What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu
Natural gas prices climb to $3.20/MMBtu driven by supply constraints, weather volatility, and sustained industrial demand, creating inflationary pressures.
PROBABILITY
42%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
ENERGY · INFLATION
What happens ifUS Regular Gas Prices Hit $3.50 Per Gallon
Sustained gasoline prices at $3.50/gallon would amplify inflationary pressures, squeeze consumer discretionary spending, and potentially trigger tighter monetary policy responses.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
17
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifFed Lower Bound Drops to 1.75% or Below
The Federal Reserve cuts its policy rate floor to 1.75% or lower, signaling aggressive monetary easing in response to severe economic weakness or deflationary pressures.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
21
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifFederal Reserve Implements Quarter-Point Rate Increase
The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, tightening monetary policy to combat inflation while risking slower economic growth and global capital flow disruptions.
PROBABILITY
21%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
3 / 5
EQUITIES · FED RATES
What happens ifS&P 500 Reaches 8,600: Bull Market Acceleration
The S&P 500 surges to 8,600, driven by robust earnings growth, multiple expansion, and accommodative monetary conditions despite current anomalous volatility readings.
PROBABILITY
16%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 0
ENERGY · COMMODITIES
What happens ifCrude Oil Settles in the $42-$49 Range
Crude oil prices stabilize in a moderate range, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics with implications for inflation, energy sector profitability, and global supply chains.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
33 / 5
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate Above Market Expectations
The RBA delivers an unexpected rate hike, tightening monetary policy to combat persistent inflation and signaling a hawkish shift in Australia's economic management.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
12 / 34
ENERGY · COMMODITIES
What happens ifWTI Crude Oil Reaches $115 per Barrel
A surge in WTI crude to $115/bbl driven by geopolitical supply disruptions and robust demand would amplify inflation, trigger monetary tightening, and reshape energy markets.
PROBABILITY
28%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
21 / 29
INFLATION · FED RATES
What happens ifUS Annual Inflation Reaches 4.2%
US inflation persists at 4.2% in May 2026, well above the Fed's 2% target, forcing sustained restrictive monetary policy and reshaping consumer spending patterns.
PROBABILITY
48%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
23 / 28
COMMODITIES · GOLD
What happens ifSilver Hits $66: Inflation and Industrial Demand Surge
Silver reaches $66/oz by May 2026, driven by persistent inflation and surging industrial demand from solar, electronics, and EV sectors.
PROBABILITY
18%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
20 / 19
INFLATION · GEOPOLITICS
What happens ifGold Futures Surge to $3,800
Gold futures reach $3,800/oz by mid-2026 driven by persistent inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and central bank reserve diversification.
PROBABILITY
7%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
24 / 13
FED RATES · INFLATION
What happens ifFed Holds Rates
The Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates through its September 2026 meeting, signaling persistent inflation concerns or economic resilience that delays monetary easing.
PROBABILITY
8%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 39
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens if10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.2%
A scenario where the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.2%, driven by persistent inflation, aggressive Fed policy, or increased government borrowing.
PROBABILITY
8%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
16 / 40
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifBank of Canada Raises Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada implements an unexpected rate hike in mid-2026, signaling concerns about persistent inflation and economic overheating despite global monetary easing trends.
PROBABILITY
99%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
14 / 29
ENERGY · GEOPOLITICS
What happens ifHottest Month on Record: Macro-Economic Consequences
Record-breaking heat in May 2026 disrupts agriculture, strains energy grids, and triggers supply chain shocks, driving food and energy inflation while testing infrastructure resilience globally.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
32 / 21
CENTRAL BANKS · GEOPOLITICS
What happens ifJerome Powell Departs as Fed Chair
Early departure of Fed Chair Powell would inject uncertainty into monetary policy direction, triggering market volatility and reshaping rate expectations.
PROBABILITY
18%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
16 / 24
CENTRAL BANKS · FED RATES
What happens ifFederal Reserve Cuts Rates to 0.5% or Lower
The Fed slashes rates to near-zero levels by 2027, signaling severe economic distress or deflationary pressures requiring aggressive monetary stimulus.
PROBABILITY
5%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
34 / 20
ENERGY · COMMODITIES
What happens ifCrude Oil Prices Fall to $40
A sustained drop in crude oil to $40/barrel would reshape global energy markets, reduce inflation pressures, strain oil-dependent economies, and lower transportation costs worldwide.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
31 / 19
FED RATES · CENTRAL BANKS
What happens ifFederal Reserve Achieves Unanimous Vote in Policy Decision
The FOMC reaches full consensus on monetary policy for the first time in years, signaling strong agreement on the economic outlook and policy path forward.
PROBABILITY
75%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
14
OPPORTUNITIES
24 / 24

Scenarios

What happens ifSilver Settles Below $50 Amid Weakening Industrial Demand

What happens ifFour or More FOMC Members Dissent on Fed Decision

What happens ifBank of Canada Holds Interest Rates Steady

What happens ifBank of Canada Announces 50+ Basis Point Rate Cut

What happens ifECB Announces Deposit Facility Rate Change

What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu

What happens ifUS Regular Gas Prices Hit $3.50 Per Gallon

What happens ifFed Lower Bound Drops to 1.75% or Below

What happens ifFederal Reserve Implements Quarter-Point Rate Increase

What happens ifS&P 500 Reaches 8,600: Bull Market Acceleration

What happens ifCrude Oil Settles in the $42-$49 Range

What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate Above Market Expectations

What happens ifWTI Crude Oil Reaches $115 per Barrel

What happens ifUS Annual Inflation Reaches 4.2%

What happens ifSilver Hits $66: Inflation and Industrial Demand Surge

What happens ifGold Futures Surge to $3,800

What happens ifFed Holds Rates

What happens if10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.2%

What happens ifBank of Canada Raises Interest Rates

What happens ifHottest Month on Record: Macro-Economic Consequences

What happens ifJerome Powell Departs as Fed Chair

What happens ifFederal Reserve Cuts Rates to 0.5% or Lower

What happens ifCrude Oil Prices Fall to $40

What happens ifFederal Reserve Achieves Unanimous Vote in Policy Decision

Briefs

MacroCade Brief — 2026-06-04: Stagflation Signals Intensify as CPI Holds Elevated

MacroCade Brief — June 3, 2026: Inflation Persistence Reshapes Rate Expectations

MacroCade Brief — June 2, 2026: Inflation Plateau Triggers Policy Recalibration

Quiet Markets Mask Structural Tensions

Policy Divergence and Geopolitical Risk Premium Expand

Mid-Year Positioning Amid Policy Uncertainty

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifSilver Settles Below $50 Amid Weakening Industrial Demand

What happens ifFour or More FOMC Members Dissent on Fed Decision

What happens ifBank of Canada Holds Interest Rates Steady

What happens ifBank of Canada Announces 50+ Basis Point Rate Cut

What happens ifECB Announces Deposit Facility Rate Change

What happens ifNatural Gas Reaches $3.20 per MMBtu

What happens ifUS Regular Gas Prices Hit $3.50 Per Gallon

What happens ifFed Lower Bound Drops to 1.75% or Below

What happens ifFederal Reserve Implements Quarter-Point Rate Increase

What happens ifS&P 500 Reaches 8,600: Bull Market Acceleration

What happens ifCrude Oil Settles in the $42-$49 Range

What happens ifReserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate Above Market Expectations

What happens ifWTI Crude Oil Reaches $115 per Barrel

What happens ifUS Annual Inflation Reaches 4.2%

What happens ifSilver Hits $66: Inflation and Industrial Demand Surge

What happens ifGold Futures Surge to $3,800

What happens ifFed Holds Rates

What happens if10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.2%

What happens ifBank of Canada Raises Interest Rates

What happens ifHottest Month on Record: Macro-Economic Consequences

What happens ifJerome Powell Departs as Fed Chair

What happens ifFederal Reserve Cuts Rates to 0.5% or Lower

What happens ifCrude Oil Prices Fall to $40

What happens ifFederal Reserve Achieves Unanimous Vote in Policy Decision