TOPIC42 SCENARIOS

middle-east

Scenarios

MORE AVAILABLE

PROB

0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · MILITARY CONFLICT
What happens ifIranian Regime Collapses Following US Military Strikes
US military action triggers the fall of Iran's government, creating a Middle Eastern power vacuum with global energy market implications and regional security risks.
PROBABILITY
98%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · NUCLEAR POLICY
What happens ifIran Agrees to End Uranium Enrichment
Iran commits to halting all uranium enrichment activities, potentially reshaping Middle East geopolitics, energy markets, and nuclear non-proliferation frameworks.
PROBABILITY
22%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · IRAN
What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough
A US agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets would mark a major shift in sanctions policy, potentially flooding energy markets with additional supply while reshaping Middle East geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
26%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY MARKETS
What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension
A new US-Iran diplomatic agreement or ceasefire extension could reshape Middle East geopolitics, stabilize energy markets, and reduce regional tensions while introducing new supply dynamics.
PROBABILITY
44%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
4 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · CONFLICT
What happens ifIsraeli Forces Enter Tyre, Lebanon
A hypothetical Israeli military incursion into Tyre would escalate regional tensions, disrupt Mediterranean shipping, and trigger safe-haven flows into gold and energy.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections
The Knesset dissolves itself before its term ends, forcing snap elections that could reshape Israel's coalition government and regional security posture amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
72%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifUS and Iran Reach Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement
A diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran lifts sanctions, reshapes Middle East power dynamics, and adds significant oil supply to global markets.
PROBABILITY
34%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifNavid Shomali Becomes Head of State in Iran
A hypothetical leadership transition in Iran that would reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, US-Iran relations, and global energy markets through shifts in regional power dynamics.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIran and Oman Reach Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Management
A bilateral accord on maritime traffic coordination in the world's most critical oil chokepoint could reduce geopolitical risk premiums and stabilize energy flows.
PROBABILITY
7%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
2 / 6
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement
A comprehensive peace treaty between Israel and Iran would fundamentally reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, energy markets, and global trade dynamics.
PROBABILITY
4%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 5
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifHassan Khomeini Becomes Iran's De Facto Head of State
Grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini consolidates power in Tehran, potentially reshaping Iran's domestic politics, regional posture, and energy export policies.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Below 20
A severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz reduces daily vessel transits to fewer than 20, triggering global energy supply shocks and geopolitical crisis.
PROBABILITY
12%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
20
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei
A historic direct conversation between Trump and Khamenei could reshape US-Iran relations, impacting Middle East stability, oil markets, and regional power dynamics.
PROBABILITY
15%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran commits to allowing unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, removing a major geopolitical risk premium from global energy markets and reducing supply disruption concerns.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUAE and Saudi Arabia Sever Diplomatic Relations
A breakdown in UAE-Saudi diplomatic ties would fracture the GCC, disrupt OPEC coordination, and send shockwaves through global energy markets and Middle Eastern stability.
PROBABILITY
4%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Outside Normal Range
Deviation from typical 10-20 daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz signals potential supply disruptions or geopolitical escalation in this critical energy chokepoint.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz
Indian warships transit the Strait of Hormuz, asserting maritime power in a critical energy chokepoint and reshaping Middle East security dynamics.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
7 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUS and Iran Hold High-Level Diplomatic Talks
A scheduled diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran could reshape Middle East geopolitics, potentially easing sanctions and stabilizing regional oil markets.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
3 / 5
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium
The United States secures enriched uranium from Iran through diplomatic or military means, fundamentally reshaping Middle East nuclear dynamics and global non-proliferation frameworks.
PROBABILITY
2%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz
South Korean naval forces establish a presence in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling commitment to energy security and maritime stability in the Persian Gulf region.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
8 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifReza Pahlavi Becomes Leader of Iran
The son of Iran's last Shah returns to power, potentially transforming the Islamic Republic into a secular democracy and reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 1
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves Triggering Regional Uncertainty
Early dissolution of the Knesset would trigger snap elections, creating political instability that could reshape regional diplomacy, delay infrastructure projects, and impact investor confidence.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY
What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Traffic Fails to Normalize
Persistent disruption to the world's most critical energy chokepoint triggers sustained oil price spikes, reroutes global trade flows, and reshapes maritime security dynamics.
PROBABILITY
10%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
10 / 0
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifSadegh Mahsouli Becomes Iran's Head of State
Conservative hardliner Sadegh Mahsouli's ascent to Iran's leadership would consolidate conservative power, potentially intensifying regional tensions and reshaping Middle East geopolitics.
PROBABILITY
0%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
9 / 0

Scenarios

What happens ifIranian Regime Collapses Following US Military Strikes

What happens ifIran Agrees to End Uranium Enrichment

What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough

What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension

What happens ifIsraeli Forces Enter Tyre, Lebanon

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections

What happens ifUS and Iran Reach Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

What happens ifNavid Shomali Becomes Head of State in Iran

What happens ifIran and Oman Reach Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Management

What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement

What happens ifHassan Khomeini Becomes Iran's De Facto Head of State

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Below 20

What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUAE and Saudi Arabia Sever Diplomatic Relations

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Outside Normal Range

What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS and Iran Hold High-Level Diplomatic Talks

What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium

What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifReza Pahlavi Becomes Leader of Iran

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves Triggering Regional Uncertainty

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Traffic Fails to Normalize

What happens ifSadegh Mahsouli Becomes Iran's Head of State

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifIranian Regime Collapses Following US Military Strikes

What happens ifIran Agrees to End Uranium Enrichment

What happens ifUS Unfreezes Iranian Assets in Diplomatic Breakthrough

What happens ifUS Announces New Iran Agreement or Ceasefire Extension

What happens ifIsraeli Forces Enter Tyre, Lebanon

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves, Triggering Early Elections

What happens ifUS and Iran Reach Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

What happens ifNavid Shomali Becomes Head of State in Iran

What happens ifIran and Oman Reach Agreement on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Management

What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement

What happens ifHassan Khomeini Becomes Iran's De Facto Head of State

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Below 20

What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

What happens ifIran Agrees to Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUAE and Saudi Arabia Sever Diplomatic Relations

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Daily Transits Fall Outside Normal Range

What happens ifIndia Deploys Naval Forces Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifUS and Iran Hold High-Level Diplomatic Talks

What happens ifUS Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium

What happens ifSouth Korea Deploys Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz

What happens ifReza Pahlavi Becomes Leader of Iran

What happens ifIsraeli Parliament Dissolves Triggering Regional Uncertainty

What happens ifStrait of Hormuz Traffic Fails to Normalize

What happens ifSadegh Mahsouli Becomes Iran's Head of State