TOPIC6 SCENARIOS

trade-war

Scenarios

PROB

0% – 100%

GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement
A comprehensive peace treaty between Israel and Iran would fundamentally reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, energy markets, and global trade dynamics.
PROBABILITY
6%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
13
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 5
GEOPOLITICS · ELECTIONS
What happens ifLiberal Democratic Party of Russia Wins Most Seats in Parliamentary Election
The nationalist LDPR securing a parliamentary plurality would signal a shift toward more assertive foreign policy, protectionist trade measures, and heightened geopolitical tensions.
PROBABILITY
1%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 4
GEOPOLITICS · TRADE WAR
What happens ifUS and Cuba Hold High-Level Diplomatic Meeting
A diplomatic meeting between the US and Cuba could signal a thaw in decades-long tensions, potentially opening pathways for trade normalization and regional realignment.
PROBABILITY
35%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · MIDDLE EAST
What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei
A historic direct conversation between Trump and Khamenei could reshape US-Iran relations, impacting Middle East stability, oil markets, and regional power dynamics.
PROBABILITY
15%
AI estimate
IMPACTS
11
OPPORTUNITIES
5 / 3
GEOPOLITICS · TRADE WAR
What happens ifAnother Country Recognizes Somaliland as Independent State
International recognition of Somaliland would reshape Horn of Africa geopolitics, challenging African Union precedent and potentially destabilizing Somalia while opening new trade routes.
PROBABILITY
5%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
16
OPPORTUNITIES
6 / 2
GEOPOLITICS · TRADE WAR
What happens ifUS Withdraws from NATO
A US exit from NATO would reshape European security, trigger defense spending surges, embolden adversaries, and destabilize transatlantic relations.
PROBABILITY
5%
Polymarket
IMPACTS
21
OPPORTUNITIES
29 / 23

Scenarios

What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement

What happens ifLiberal Democratic Party of Russia Wins Most Seats in Parliamentary Election

What happens ifUS and Cuba Hold High-Level Diplomatic Meeting

What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

What happens ifAnother Country Recognizes Somaliland as Independent State

What happens ifUS Withdraws from NATO

Get the scenario of the week

What happens ifIsrael and Iran Reach Permanent Peace Agreement

What happens ifLiberal Democratic Party of Russia Wins Most Seats in Parliamentary Election

What happens ifUS and Cuba Hold High-Level Diplomatic Meeting

What happens ifTrump Holds Direct Talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

What happens ifAnother Country Recognizes Somaliland as Independent State

What happens ifUS Withdraws from NATO