O CPI se mantém em 332,4 com a desinflação estagnada; mercados precificam pausa do Fed até o Q3, com rotação para defensivos enquanto energia e metais preciosos capturam fluxos de porto seguro.
Uma tese macro na sua caixa todo domingo. Sem enchimento.
April CPI at 332.4 marks the third consecutive month of sub-0.3% m/m gains, signaling disinflation has plateaued rather than accelerated. Markets now price 78% odds the Fed holds through September, up from 52% Friday. This recalibration is driving rotation: tech multiples compress as duration risk resurfaces, while energy and precious metals absorb defensive flows. Geopolitical premium persists in crude amid Middle East positioning.
Israeli coalition fractures push Knesset dissolution odds to 74%; early elections could reshape regional policy stance amid Iran tensions.
Russia consolidates positions near Zaporizhzhia; low-intensity conflict persists, maintaining energy supply-risk premium in European markets.
Iran-US nuclear talks stall as hardliners gain influence; Strait of Hormuz traffic remains stable but geopolitical premium persists in crude.
China GDP growth tracking toward 4.8%, within target range; PBoC maintains accommodative stance as property sector stabilization continues.
April CPI at 332.4 extends three-month trend of sub-0.3% monthly gains, but y/y remains elevated at 3.8%. Markets now see 78% odds Fed holds rates through Q3, up sharply from last week.
WTI crude approaches $72 as OPEC+ maintains production discipline and Middle East tensions simmer. XLE gains 2.3% as investors price supply-risk premium into energy equities.
Gold and silver rally 2.8% and 3.2% respectively as inflation plateau extends higher-for-longer Fed scenario. Real rates stall near 1.2%, restoring appeal of zero-yield hedges.
10Y Treasury yield rises 8bps to 4.18% as markets reprice Fed path. Long-duration tech names compress as higher discount rates pressure valuations; QQQ down 1.1%.
Knesset dissolution odds rise to 74% amid coalition fractures. Early elections could reshape Middle East policy stance, adding uncertainty premium to energy and defense sectors.