O IPC de abril permanece teimosamente alto em 332,4, reforçando as preocupações com estagflação. Os mercados precificam taxas mais altas por mais tempo, enquanto as tensões geopolíticas fervem em múltiplos teatros.
Uma tese macro na sua caixa todo domingo. Sem enchimento.
April CPI data confirms inflation persistence, keeping Fed rate cuts off the table through Q3. Energy complex remains bid on Middle East tensions and OPEC discipline. Equity positioning turns defensive as duration assets underperform. Watch for policy divergence as BoC and RBA face opposite pressures. Next 48h: focus shifts to Friday's payrolls for labor market confirmation.
Israeli coalition instability rises to 74% dissolution probability while Iran tensions persist. Energy markets price 8-12% risk premium on potential supply disruption.
China GDP tracking outside target range triggers policy speculation. Capital outflows accelerate as PBOC faces stimulus-versus-stability dilemma into Q3.
Ukraine conflict grinds on with Russia eyeing strategic positions in Zaporizhzhia. NATO support commitments face fiscal pressure as European budgets tighten.
Fed policy paralysis as inflation persists without growth acceleration. Political calendar heats up with fiscal policy uncertainty weighing on business investment.
Consumer Price Index remains elevated, forcing markets to reprice Fed trajectory. Swap markets now see first cut delayed to Q4 2026 at earliest, with terminal rate expectations rising 15bp.
Oil prices climb as Iran-Israel tensions persist and OPEC+ maintains production discipline. Refiners face margin compression while airlines hedge aggressively into summer travel season.
Knesset dissolution probability rises to 74% as coalition partners diverge on judicial reform and Gaza policy. Political uncertainty adds volatility to regional security calculus.
Q2 GDP tracking suggests deviation from 4.6-4.9% target corridor. PBOC faces dilemma between stimulus to support growth and currency stability amid capital outflow pressures.