Russia Tests Nuclear Weapon by September 2026

GEOPOLITICS · UK POLICY

UK Designates IRGC as Terrorist Organization by June 2026

The UK formally designates Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, triggering sanctions, diplomatic fallout, and heightened Middle East tensions.

35%

CENTRAL BANK POLICY · MONETARY POLICY

Jerome Powell Departs as Fed Chair Before July 2026

Early departure of Fed Chair Powell would inject uncertainty into monetary policy direction, triggering market volatility and reshaping rate expectations.

18%

GEOPOLITICS · ENERGY SECURITY

US Restarts Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz by May 2026

Renewed US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz would heighten regional tensions, threaten oil supply routes, and potentially trigger energy price spikes.

35%

ENERGY · COMMODITIES

Crude Oil Prices Fall to $40 by June 2026

A sustained drop in crude oil to $40/barrel would reshape global energy markets, reduce inflation pressures, strain oil-dependent economies, and lower transportation costs worldwide.

25%

Get the scenario of the week

Russia Tests Nuclear Weapon by September 2026

Related scenarios