Political paralysis, Eurozone delay, and cascading risks for energy and infrastructure
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Yes. The Currency Board Arrangement is legally and structurally entrenched, making any change to the peg highly unlikely even during intense political volatility.
Investors should expect a delay of 12-24 months. Political gridlock will likely hinder the necessary legislative reforms required to meet ECB convergence criteria.
The outlook is negative for local construction and energy-linked equities. However, export-oriented firms with international revenue bases may remain resilient.
The primary risk is the frozen absorption of EU funds, which currently acts as the main driver for domestic infrastructure and civil engineering profitability.
Yes. Procurement of NATO-standard assets (e.g., F-16s) is likely to face administrative delays, negatively impacting contractors who rely on consistent government engagement.
Watch for widening spreads between Bulgarian and Romanian CDS, and increased volatility in the BGN bond market as foreign investors price in political risk.
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