What Happens If Keiko Fujimori Wins the 2026 Peruvian Election?

Yes, historical precedent and investor sentiment point to a sharp initial relief rally. However, the sustainability of this rally depends heavily on the incoming administration's ability to navigate a likely hostile, fragmented congress.

The mining and financial sectors are the primary beneficiaries. Mining firms gain from streamlined permitting processes, while banks (BAP, IFS) benefit from reduced country risk and expectations of credit expansion.

Markets expect a 3-5% appreciation of the Sol (PEN) in the weeks following a victory as institutional investors unwind political risk hedges and re-allocate into PER assets.

The 'social license to operate' is the primary systemic risk. A perceived mandate to aggressively fast-track mining projects in rural areas without sufficient community consensus could trigger widespread blockades and civil unrest.

We expect a pivot toward a more 'Atlanticist' and security-orientated foreign policy. This includes tighter diplomatic and intelligence alignment with the US, potentially causing friction with left-leaning regional trade partners.