Radical policy shifts, institutional risk, and currency volatility expected under Sánchez Palomino's presidency.
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Complete nationalization is unlikely due to diplomatic and legal complexities. Instead, look for 'creeping expropriation' via significant royalty hikes, mandatory local equity participation, and increased ESG-related regulatory burdens.
The Sol is expected to face immediate, aggressive depreciation. Institutional capital flight and hedging demand, led by domestic pension funds (AFPs) and foreign investors, will likely push the currency toward historical lows.
Yes, for now. The BCRP is the primary firewall against monetary instability. However, under Sánchez, the primary market risk is the administration attempting to erode this autonomy through political appointments or pressure.
Proactive attempts to renegotiate the TPA to include 'local content' requirements are expected, which creates major operational uncertainty for MNCs and could lead to trade friction with the US.
Financials (e.g., Credicorp) and infrastructure-linked domestic players (e.g., Cementos Pacasmayo) face the most severe risks due to potential credit controls and government budget reconfigurations.
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